“Policy risks play out when demand is strong enough for activity to withstand a supply shock,” he explained. “This allows the Fed to focus on inflation, as it did in ’22. But when Russia invaded Ukraine, the U-rate was below 4%, core PCE inflation was over 5%, payrolls were running at 500k/month and consumers were flush with Covid stimulus cash.
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This means the specific people on the committee make a big difference.
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